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Alliance Gaming Shares Steady

Shares of Alliance Gaming recovered a bit Wednesday, after falling 24% Tuesday on an earnings warning and broker downgrade. Alliance lowered earnings guidance, citing delays in regulatory approval for gaming in New York and California, rising research and development expenses and lower yields for some of its machines. Instead of $1.04 a share, the company now expects to earn between 96 cents and $1 a share in 2004 vs. the $1.05 a share expected by Wall Street. And this underperformance will continue — Alliance expects to earn between $1.20 and $1.30 a share in 2005, a far cry from the $1.43 expected by Wall Street.

Shares were up 25 cents, or 1.5%, to $16.40, having fallen $5.24 in very heavy trading volume Tuesday. More than 13.4 million shares changed hands, about 14 times the average volume.

But while Alliance blames uncertainty around the expansion of gaming for its sliding estimates, J.P. Morgan analyst Harry Curtis downgraded the company to underweight (its lowest rating) from overweight (its highest rating). In Curtis’ view, Alliance is falling behind rivals like International Game Technology (NYSE: IGT) and WMS Industries (NYSE: WMS). (J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with the companies covered in its research report and Alliance Gaming was or is a banking client of JPM’s in last 12 months.)

"When we upgraded Alliance to overweight on March 1, the rating was based on continued strength in system sales, as well as an acceleration in new slot sales to … Indian casinos," said Curtis, in his downgrade. "While these two factors are still in place, Alliance’s other lines of business are disappointing."

One of the larger issues facing Alliance is the deployment of video lottery terminals in New York, which has been delayed, as well as slower deployment of wide-area progressive slot machines, which pool jackpots and allow for massive one-time payouts. Ultimately, Curtis — who was one of the company’s biggest bulls — concluded that Alliance’s fortunes were unlikely to improve in the next 12 months, especially with WMS moving into new markets.

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